[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Supply Continues to Increase, Market Confidence Remains Weak

On November 12, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,100-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, offers for high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,200-8,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day. For imported ferrochrome, offers for South African high-carbon ferrochrome were 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); offers for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome were 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content), down 25 yuan/mt (50% metal content) MoM from the previous trading day.

During the day, the ferrochrome market continued its previous weak and stable trend, with offers continuing to decline amid limited transactions. Recently, an enterprise in Inner Mongolia converted a 45,000 kva submerged arc furnace to produce ferrochrome, which is expected to reduce monthly ferrochrome production by 7,000 mt. While maintaining a certain profit margin, ferrochrome producers are actively producing, with output fluctuating at highs and supply continuing to increase. However, downstream stainless steel market activity is low, and production cut adjustments have led to weak purchasing demand for ferrochrome, with most participants adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, putting pressure on ferrochrome prices. Cost side, the fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented, leading to a slight rise in coke costs for ferrochrome smelting, but chrome ore prices are fluctuating at lows, causing overall production costs to trend downward and weakening support for ferrochrome prices. Current mainstream market expectations suggest the new round of mainstream steel mill tender prices for high-carbon ferrochrome could fall by 200-400 yuan. In the short term, the ferrochrome market is expected to operate mainly under pressure.

Raw material side, on November 12, 2025, spot offers for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were 54.5-54.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% South African raw ore were 48.5-49.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate powder were 55-55.5 yuan/mtu; offers for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate ore were 56-57 yuan/mtu; offers for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 58-60 yuan/mtu; offers for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate powder were 64-65 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu MoM from the previous trading day. In the futures market, offers for 40-42% South African fines remained flat at $279-282/mt.

The chrome ore market fluctuated downward, with sluggish trading activity. Downstream raw material inventory was within safe levels, resulting in sluggish inquiries and purchases, primarily for rigid demand. Sellers, constrained by continuous inventory buildup at ports and increasing shipment pressure, lowered their offers. However, considering the gradual approach to the cost line, the room for further price concessions is limited, leading to a stalemate in the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. In the futures market, offers from major overseas mines for South African fines remained steady at $282/mt, providing some support to the chrome ore market. However, weak demand made transactions difficult, with domestic purchasers mainly cautious and watchful. In the short term, relatively high ferrochrome production provides some support for ore demand, as the market awaits guidance from the new round of steel mill tenders and overseas market offers.